Targeting: Journal of Management Studies
The 300 Million Mile View: Asteroid Mining and a Synthesized Theory of Hype
Pagel, A. Working Paper, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR.
Pagel, A. Working Paper, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR.
Pagel, A., Murray, A., & Nelson, A. Working Paper, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR.
Pagel, A., Grimes, M., Nelson, A., & Murray, A. Working Paper, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR.
Pagel, A. & Parmigiani, A. Working Paper, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR.
Pagel, A. Working Paper, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR.
Hype has recently received increased attention by management scholars because it offers insights into a range of theories. From institutions to individuals, all create and manage hype as they attempt to garner attention, generate excitement, and set expectations for stakeholders. However, these actions can also lead to disappointment, disbelief, and divestment when expectations become misaligned with reality. Although different disciplines, theories, and frameworks have considered hype, we lack a unified understanding of how the actions of an agent, in concert with the structural environment, can lead to rapidly increasing expectations associated with hype. This study uses an abductive analytical process to examine how hype has been discussed in management and non-management literatures while simultaneously investigating an extreme example of hyped activity: the asteroid mining industry. In this setting, firms require significant investments with ambiguous time horizons and uncertain payoffs. I find the phenomenon exists in two interrelated dimensions – agentic versus structural and resource versus process – and identify technology influence and temporal relationships as moderating factors. These dimensions and moderators constitute my synthesized theory of hype. This research contributes to management literatures concerning futures, entrepreneurship, and innovation
Cultural entrepreneurship and storytelling literatures explain how past exemplars or prototypes are used to legitimize a new venture and their vision of a tangible near-term, yet uncertain, future. Hype management literature extends this research by identifying how a shared collective vision of a possible distant future is incorporated into a new venture’s legitimizing frame. Yet, these explanations are unable to fully explain how two asteroid mining ventures secured millions in private investment and motivated national unilateral laws since there was neither an exemplar nor existing shared collective vision of the future that included space resources. Thus, this paper asks: How do ventures in a nascent industry encourage audiences to adopt a distal collective vision of the distant future? Through field-level examination of the 2010s asteroid mining industry, this qualitative inductive study uses a multimethod analytical approach to find expectations about the future are co-constructed through a cultural structuration process. We identify three primary mechanisms that expand the set of possible futures and drive increasing expectations: untethered time horizons, setting tangible targets, and assembling complementary innovations. This process and mechanisms frame the past as full of consistent change but followed by a present which prioritizes the status quo. Rather than adopting a singular vision, audiences adopt a vision of the future that is full of inevitable possibilities, leading them to expect abundant marginal change. Our research contributes to hype, distant futures, and resource mobilization literatures.
Abstract text coming soon.
Shadow options are the possible opportunities a firm could choose to consider as real options once they have been identified. While shadow options are a necessary ‘moment before’ in real options theory, scant empirical work exists to understand how firms identify these hidden opportunities. The attention-based view provides some explanations as to what conditions might favor or inhibit shadow option identification, but the specific mechanisms remain unexplored. Our study proposes an experimental design to examine how firm attention structure orientations can influence decision-makers to recognize shadow options and convert them by choosing investments in new or existing markets. Our findings will provide empirical evidence to shadow option recognition, an aspect of real option theory that has remained largely conceptual.
“Hype” has become a catchall word that describes something as potentially overvalued. While its typical use in scholarly research has been as a signal within a title that a paper will analyze the merits of a claim or technology, there is a growing awareness that hype may be a much more complex phenomenon that involves longitudinal value claims and assessments. However, meaningful research on hype is challenging since there no consensus on its definition and is often partially explained by contextualized theories in other domains. This conceptual paper attempts to address these challenges by abductively generating a parsimonious definition of hype as a form of persuasion that is informed by theorized implications of hype in extant literature, common usage in popular media, and previously proposed definitions. To support the new definition, this paper also clearly distinguishes hype as a decontextualized form of persuasion that is different from contextualized extant theories that only offer partial explanatory power. The paper concludes with a generalized conceptual framework of hype, an extended framework that introduces a true hype cycle, and propositions for further research.
Early-stage ideas not yet in working paper form.
with Hannah Grubbs
with Natasha Overmeyer and Clare Evans
Solo-authored
Hype and Asteroid Mining: Structuration, Expanding Possibilities, and Expecting Abundant Marginal Change (Pagel, Murray, & Nelson, 2025) — Sirius Space Talks, Toulouse, France (Remote)
Attending to the Shadows (Pagel & Parmigiani, 2025) — Strategic Management Conference, San Francisco
The 300 Million Mile View: Asteroid Mining and a Synthesized Theory of Hype (Pagel, 2025) — Hype Studies Conference, Barcelona, Spain (Remote)
Hype and Asteroid Mining: Structuration, Expanding Possibilities, and Expecting Abundant Marginal Change (Pagel, Murray, & Nelson, 2025) — Academy of Management, Space Entrepreneurship Presentation Symposium
The 300 Million Mile View: Asteroid Mining and a Synthesized Theory of Hype (Pagel, 2025) — Three Minute Thesis
Research Proposal — Cornell's Emergent Market Institute PhD Conference
Towards a Holistic Theory of Hype (Pagel & Murray, 2023) — Western Academy of Management, Traditional Paper
DePaul University Behavioral Economics Course (Remote)
Western Academy of Management — Developmental Paper
DePaul University's Economics and Strategy Podcast
Doctoral Consortium — West Coast Research Symposium
Space Economy PDW — Academy of Management
Creative Spark 7.0 PDW for Academy of Management Discoveries
TIM Doctoral Research Development Workshop — Academy of Management
Temporality and Technology PDW — Academy of Management
Framing Novelty PDW — Academy of Management
Doctoral Consortium — Western Academy of Management
Doctoral Consortium — Western Academy of Management
Honorable Mention, DePaul Economics Student Conference